Opinion: Joining the Dots on Urban Intelligence

I began studying urban places in the 1990s. The concept of the “city as a computer” had taken hold at that time, describing the city as a complicated but predictable system that can be reduced to discrete, functional parts for optimisation of inputs and outputs.

Today, the city is understood not as a computer but as a place of convergence, where changing cultural norms and institutional practices collide with emerging technologies, economic uncertainties, geopolitical dynamics and accelerating climate change.

Cities are places where natural, human and built systems intermingle in complex, adaptive and non-linear ways. Outcomes are often unexpected until they land on our doorstep—a phenomenon known as “emergence”. Like the people that inhabit them, our cities are complex.

Yet cities are durable, as sociologist Saskia Sassen reminds us, precisely because they are complex. They have the capacity for change because they build adaptive and anticipatory muscle. Still, becoming “future fit” today compels an expanded planning mindset, skillset and toolset. Urban leaders in pursuit of liveability must embrace entanglement, wrangle with uncertainty and harness the knowledge that comes out of emergence.

This calls for globally networked approaches being embedded in local governance, and the blending of data with the technological affordances of AI as well as the experiential aspects of qualitative science. It requires integrated planning that balances the past, present and future—in other words, being able to tie our shoelaces while looking to the horizon.

Using Future-Fluency to Prepare for the Next Fifty Years

The future isn’t something we can see with a crystal ball. We can, however, better connect the dots between forces shapng our direction of travel. We can scan for weak signals of change to reduce blind spots. We can collectively imagine the futures we want and take active steps to capitalise on change.

Governments in Singapore as well as the United Kingdom, United States, United Arab Emirates and Europe are combining strategic foresight with a future-fluent mindset to practically bridge coming change with more immediate decisions and implementation. In planning a new health district, for instance, horizon scanning can shift the brief by surfacing unexpected movements in family composition, highlighting the need for emerging skills, and centring a rise in synthetic biology.

Visioning for the future can act as a vehicle for strategic dialogue between government, industry and civic voices, leading to radical new healthcare models informed by local knowledge on topics like carer support and demand for hyper-personalised patient care. Furthermore, forward-thinking via scenario modelling can combine data from disparate fields to prototype health options in vivid colour, bringing trade-offs to life for decision makers and citizens while stress-testing tenability of strategies against different possible futures.

Cooling interventions supported through the use of satellite imagery and open-source climate data (Arup)

Asking the Right Questions with Data and Technology

Advances in urban analytics are creating radically new lenses to reveal hidden patterns of place. Countries like Singapore that have collected deep and structured data over many years are well positioned to unknot the complex urban structures which hold some of our trickiest challenges.

For instance, agent-based modelling is already replicating the multitude of interactions that happen between individuals within a city to investigate transport policy options. On another front, merging data on walkability and air pollution is heightening our understanding of the relationship between the urban environment and health outcomes for residents.

Liveability is both deeply personal and collective, felt from the perspective of the individual, the neighbourhood and the city. Blending the “what” and “how” of big data with the contextual “why” of social data can be a powerful correlative for liveability. One example is the provision of shade.

Increasing canopy cover is one of the most effective strategies to mitigate urban heat. Localised data on trees, public health and real estate can be layered with AI-powered remote sensing for hyperpersonalised inputs on how shade influences physical, cognitive, ecological and commercial well-being.

Richer analysis might illuminate the tacit knowledge and lived experiences that underpin urban dynamics with contextual data— for example, the experiential qualities that make one shady spot more appealing than another for a specific group. At both the macro and micro levels, big data and contextual data can then be synthesised for inclusive, technically rigorous interventions that consider shade as an economic infrastructure, a social resource and a common ecological good.

Considering the Next Bound of Liveability

Our idea of liveability moves as values shift, economic conditions change and environmental pressures become more acute. The science of cities needs to move with it.

With regard to civic participation and social values, we must consider how cities would evolve if more people were involved in shaping places conducive to liveability. No one actor has the capability or capacity to tackle today’s challenges. Cities are increasingly partnering with citizens to deepen situational knowledge and co-create solutions directed to mission-led innovation. Transdisciplinary approaches, in particular, offer new ways to pool intelligence across the public service, academia, industry and civil society.

In cultivating economic complexity, we must think about how landuse policies can incentivise the development of radical mixed-use spaces to meet liveability ambitions. Central business districts are re-organising around experiences over office towers. Industries are becoming cleaner and quieter. Fifteen-minute cities are rising.

Cities intent on resilience are challenging “single use” spatial policies by radically diversifying economic activity and land uses for greater innovation, creativity and participation in convivial civic life.

Towards creating regenerative cities, we might reflect on what liveability would look like if cities measured the quality of the urban experience for both human and more-than-human populations. The vigour of people, economies and the built environment is inseparable from the health of our natural ecosystems. With this view, what voice could we give Singapore’s natural systems and inhabitants? For example, the Wanganui River in New Zealand is accorded legal personhood with representation in planning considerations.

Beyond allocating space and managing traffic, planning has a role to play in stewarding inspiring places that elevate human aspiration and well-being. To do this, we must break through our silos to connect the different types of urban intelligence baked into our social, built and natural systems.

The next bound of liveability will involve a shift from sustainable to regenerative cities (Arup)